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Open Access Article
1 - Climate Change Assessment in Ardebil province during 2011-2030
ladan kazemi radOutputs of GCMs downscaled by LARS-WG model for assessing the Climate Change in Ardebil Province. Outputs from 2 GCMs models (MPEH5, HADCM3) based on 2 scenarios (A2, B1) were used for predicting climatic parameters during 2011-2030. Model that has lowest difference com MoreOutputs of GCMs downscaled by LARS-WG model for assessing the Climate Change in Ardebil Province. Outputs from 2 GCMs models (MPEH5, HADCM3) based on 2 scenarios (A2, B1) were used for predicting climatic parameters during 2011-2030. Model that has lowest difference compared to the average results has chosen as a suitable model for predicting the future. Outputs of chosen Model were compared with the base data to determine their trends. The results showed that minimum and maximum temperatures (0.4 ° C) and dry day length (9 days) will increase. Also rainfall (27.5 mm), wet day length (9 days), hot day length (2 days) and frost day length (4 days) will decrease in the period of future. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - Study of Land Use Change Using Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing Techniques
Mehrdad Khanmohammadi Maryam Haghighi khomami Mohammad panahandeh Mahsa Abdoli LaktasaraeiIndeed, protected areas, national parks and biosphere reserves in general, are the natural heritage of each country. Therefore, knowledge of their changes plays an essential role in management of these areas. Remote sensing is one of the most advanced and effective tech MoreIndeed, protected areas, national parks and biosphere reserves in general, are the natural heritage of each country. Therefore, knowledge of their changes plays an essential role in management of these areas. Remote sensing is one of the most advanced and effective technology for monitoring environmental changes and resource management. The purpose of this research is to detect the land use /cover changes in Bojagh National Park in Guilan province during 2000-2017. For this purpose, the images of ETM+ sensor from the landsat 7 were taken in the year 2000 and the images of OLI sensor from the landsat 8 were taken in the year 2017. After applying the necessary preprocessing on the images, the training points were selected for each user class in sufficient number and with appropriate processing then, the land use / cover map was produced using the supervised classification method with maximum likelihood algorithm. Using the Overall accuracy test and Kappa coefficients, accuracy of the produced maps was determined. The results of the study indicated that the areas of the sea, grassland and the areas of the waterbody parts has decreased and the areas of the agricultural, marshland, man-made, woody and bare lands users show an increase during the study period. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Evaluation the hydrodynamic and morphology changes in Sefidrood river estuary
مرتضی کریمی Jamal Mohammad Vali SamaniGeomorphic changes of low-coastal areas, such as wetlands, estuaries and beaches depend heavily on the balance between input sediment from the basin or the sea and the outflow sediment with erosion source arising from wind waves and tidal flows. In this research, the fl MoreGeomorphic changes of low-coastal areas, such as wetlands, estuaries and beaches depend heavily on the balance between input sediment from the basin or the sea and the outflow sediment with erosion source arising from wind waves and tidal flows. In this research, the flow and sediment pattern were investigated using MIKE21 model in the Sefidrud River and how the influence of flow pattern, sediment transport and sea water level changes on evolution of the delta and coastline were studied by landsat. The factors such as flow and sediment load of the river, sea level, wind and wave pattern are the most important factors which affect these changes. This study can provide a properly field for a right management in order to the region’s sustainable development, adequate knowledge of the Sefid-Roud hydrodynamic and sediment situation in estuary area, as well as taking the necessary measures to prevent damages caused by the Caspian Sea’s long-term fluctuations in the Sefid-Roud’s deltaic region. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - Investigation of the trend of land use changes in Rey city using remote sensing data
sara foroutan mahmoud shariat mirmasoud kheirkhah zarkesh rahim sarvarRey city has experienced unprecedented urban growth in recent decades that leading to drastic changes in the land use of the region. Therefore, the purpose of this article was to investigate the changes in land use area of Rey city during the years 1988 to 2006 using ae MoreRey city has experienced unprecedented urban growth in recent decades that leading to drastic changes in the land use of the region. Therefore, the purpose of this article was to investigate the changes in land use area of Rey city during the years 1988 to 2006 using aerial photographs and satellite images of Landsat and IRS. With supervised and unsupervised classification of the satellite images, 4 land uses types including urban lands, agricultural lands, green spaces and barren lands were extracted. Land use layers were compared in pairs and the rate of land use changes was extracted. The results showed that urban land use made and urban green space have increased 369.7 and 55.6 hectares, respectively, and agricultural lands and barren lands have decreased 213.8 and 211.5 hectares, respectively. The growth of residential areas during a period of 6 years from 2000 to 2006 totally with 212.7 hectares has been faster changed than a period of 12 years from 1988 to 2000 with 157 hectares. A pairwise comparison matrix of land uses was used to determine the amount of environmental damages caused by unprincipled changes in the region land uses in the studying period. The results show that the conversion of barren lands, agriculture and urban green space into residential lands with the amounts 44.65, 42.44 and 14.85 causes high degree of environmental damages. Land use change, especially the loss of vegetation, has a negative impact on the landscape. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - Detection and prediction of forest level changes in Guilan province using satellite images and geomod model
sahar abdollahi Vahid NasiriFollowing the rapid economic and social development in recent decades, human activity to use natural resources has been reflected in the form of infrastructure and agricultural activities. This has severely affected forests as an important ecosystem which are considered MoreFollowing the rapid economic and social development in recent decades, human activity to use natural resources has been reflected in the form of infrastructure and agricultural activities. This has severely affected forests as an important ecosystem which are considered potential environmental resources for future evolution. The purpose of this study is to detect changes of Guilan province forest levels during a period of 20 years (1996-2016), also modeling and predict these changes for the next 15 years using the geomod model. Landsat TM and OLI sensor images were used to prepare land use maps for 1996, 2006, and 2016 periods. Satellite images were classified into forest and non-forest classes using the maximum likelihood method and multiple educational samples. The geomod model was simulated based on the changes made in the period 1996-2006, changes in forest cover using the variables of height, slope, direction, distance from residential, distance from a road, distance from forest, with implementation for 2016. The predicted validation results of the forest cover map in 2016 is indicator the overall accuracy and value of the kappa index equal to 94.19% and 0.9159, respectively. Based on the results of detecting changes during the study period (1996-2016), 1054.97 hectares of forest area in Guilan province has been reduced and with the continuation of this trend and stable conditions in the next 15 years until 2031, another 871 hectares will be reduced from its level. Given the importance role of Hyrcanian forests, it is necessary to conduct multi-time studies to monitor and detect changes. Obviously, the information from such studies can be used in managerial and strategic planning. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - Prediction of carbon price forecast using time series analysis
Roya AbediMany economic tools have been proposed and used to reduce climate change. Carbon trading is one of these market-based tools that is recognized as a cost-effective way to change climate and environmental issues. Today, the issue of carbon sequestration and bioenergy prod MoreMany economic tools have been proposed and used to reduce climate change. Carbon trading is one of these market-based tools that is recognized as a cost-effective way to change climate and environmental issues. Today, the issue of carbon sequestration and bioenergy production versus fossil fuels is great concern of governments, and many efforts have been made to reduce or control carbon dioxide emissions. The aim of this study is to investigate carbon price fluctuations and predict price trends based on historical carbon price data in the time series 2005-2020. Data were analyzed by regression analysis based on Fuller augmented Dicky after eliminating inflation. The results show that the trend of carbon prices has fluctuated during this period. The average expected price of carbon is 3,303,589 Iranian Rials.Many economic tools have been proposed and used to reduce climate change. Carbon trading is one of these market-based tools that is recognized as a cost-effective way to change climate and environmental issues. Today, the issue of carbon sequestration and bioenergy production versus fossil fuels is great concern of governments, and many efforts have been made to reduce or control carbon dioxide emissions. The aim of this study is to investigate carbon price fluctuations and predict price trends based on historical carbon price data in the time series 2005-2020. Data were analyzed by regression analysis based on Fuller augmented Dicky after eliminating inflation. the trend of carbon prices has ش fluctuated during this period. The average expected price of carbon is 3,303,589 Iranian Rials. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - Evaluation of trend of rainfall and temperature changes and their effects on meteorological drought in Kermanshah province
Maryam Teymouri Yeganeh Liela Teymouri YeganehClimate change is one of the natural features of the atmospheric cycle, which results in anomalies or fluctuations in the process of meteorological parameters such as rainfall and temperature. Also, drought is one of the weather and climate disasters, including catastro MoreClimate change is one of the natural features of the atmospheric cycle, which results in anomalies or fluctuations in the process of meteorological parameters such as rainfall and temperature. Also, drought is one of the weather and climate disasters, including catastrophic events. It alternates with floods and causes significant damage each year. Lack of rainfall has different effects on groundwater, soil moisture and river flow. For this reason, the study of changes in precipitation and temperature has always been the focus of researchers in various sciences, including natural resources and the environment. In this study, using the data of Kermanshah Meteorological Organization related to 30 years of rainfall, average minimum temperature and average maximum temperature in three stations of Kermanshah, Islamabad West and Sarpol-e Zahab to assess the severity of drought each year by DIC software Using standard precipitation index (SPI) and examining the trend of temperature changes using two non-parametric Mann-Kendall tests, Sensitimator and also linear regression. In order to study the drought trend during the 30-year period, statistical software was used and the results showed that during the 30-year period, all three stations are in near normal condition. Also, the results of temperature changes using the mentioned tests indicate the increasing trend of temperature and this trend is significant at the level of 99% using two non-parametric Mann-Kendall tests. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
8 - Investigating the effect of climate change on temperature and precipitation using the LARS-WG model (case study: Bashar river basin)
Hamid reza Panahi Hossein Montaseri Aliakbar Hekmat zadeh Reza KhaliliThe increase of greenhouse gases and the resulting increase in temperature have caused the balance of the earth's climate system and climate changes in most areas of the earth. Therefore, adapting and dealing with climate changes in the water resources sector along with MoreThe increase of greenhouse gases and the resulting increase in temperature have caused the balance of the earth's climate system and climate changes in most areas of the earth. Therefore, adapting and dealing with climate changes in the water resources sector along with reducing their reflection should be seriously addressed as part of a comprehensive regional response to the vulnerability caused by climate change. In this study, using LARS-WG exponential microscale software and the HadCM3 oceanic atmospheric general circulation model in the form of different scenarios defined in the fourth IPCC report (basic scenarios), including scenario A1, A2, B1, B2, which are more related to regional issues. And the world is concerned from an economic and environmental point of view, the amount of temperature changes and precipitation in the next 100 years of Bashar river basin was predicted. Then the fifth report scenario (RCP) was used and the results were compared with the basic scenarios. The results showed that in both scenarios in the coming period, we will face a large increase in average air temperature, but the decrease in precipitation will not be significant. In the climate change scenario section, RCPs until the end of the 21st century indicate an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation in the coming years. The amount of temperature changes in RCP2.6 was estimated between 3 and 13% and in RCP8.5 between 4 and 14%; This increase in temperature on a large scale increases evaporation and prolongs drought periods. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
9 - Investigation of the trend of climate change using simulated data of LARS-WG model in the period of 2011-2030 (Case study: Sardasht region of West Azerbaijan)
maryam aghaie zahra eslamianGiven the importance of climate change on the structure of the planet's environment and its in habitants, and will continue to try to understand as much as possible how climate change is happening. In this study in the climatic phase, daily data of minimum temperature, MoreGiven the importance of climate change on the structure of the planet's environment and its in habitants, and will continue to try to understand as much as possible how climate change is happening. In this study in the climatic phase, daily data of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours of Sardasht synoptic station in the period 1996-1996 were simulated using LARS-WG statistical model and after ensuring the efficiency of this model in Simulation of meteorological parameters in Sardasht region, to study climatic parameters in climate change, data; Three scenarios A2 (maximum scenario), A1B (medium scenario) and B1 (minimum scenario) of HadCM3 model in the period 2030-2011 were scaled with LARS-WG small statistical model. The results showed that according to the estimation of LARS-WG model for the studied scenarios in the future periods, the average temperature of Sardasht watershed will increase by 4 degrees Celsius. The amount of precipitation also shows a 2% increase compared to the base period. The results also show that in general, the performance of Lars model in modeling the meteorological variables of the stations under study is appropriate and can be used to reconstruct the data of stations in the past or Extend this data to the next period. It can also be used to assess the future climate of the province on a local scale. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
10 - Investigating the impact of climate change on the environment and agriculture
Bahareh Rafiei Hamed Kioumarsi Reza Naseri Harsini Seyed Mohammad Reza MahdavianDuring the last century, science and technology have grown and developed significantly, however, this development, along with all the advantages and added values for the quality of human life, has brought inappropriate effects on the environment. Unfortunately, the huma MoreDuring the last century, science and technology have grown and developed significantly, however, this development, along with all the advantages and added values for the quality of human life, has brought inappropriate effects on the environment. Unfortunately, the human conflict with the problems which has created for the planet, including wars and new diseases, has caused less attention to the impact of climate change on environment and especially the related agriculture activities. If the agricultural sector exposed by climate change and will not be able to meet human food needs, life will be near to its end point. Agricultural activities are not only exposed to these changes, but also by leaving possible negative effects on environment lead to these changes. Threatening food security, the reduction of biological diversity, the loss of soil, the reduction of water resources, and the conversion of forests into farms and their gradual destruction, turn the earth into an unlivable area with the unpredictable occurrence of storms, floods and temperature changes. Therefore, investigating the impact of climate change and its components on different ecosystems and species that affect agriculture can be a step towards achieving new management mechanisms to reduce and adapt to these changes and achieving sustainable environment and agriculture. Manuscript profile
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